Monsoon Prediction for 2024, Due to El Niño, La Niña Effects Above Average Rainfall Expected, Know on Khetivyapar

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently revealed that this year, 2024, might witness a monsoon season better than the normal conditions. According to the weather department, a significant update for this year's monsoon season (June to September) suggests a probability of above-average rainfall during the interval. During this period, the expectation is that rainfall will exceed the average (87 cm) by approximately 106 percent, although this margin could vary by about 5 to 7 percent. IMD views this monsoon season positively, especially for the regions from southern to western India, which is encouraging news for the agricultural sectors and farmers across the country.

Effects of El Niño and La Niña in Previous Years:

India, during the monsoon seasons, there has been above-average rainfall observed on nine occasions so far, according to the Department of Meteorology. This occurred after the La Niña phenomenon followed by El Niño. In the year 2023, during El Niño, India experienced "below-average" rainfall, with only 820 mm recorded compared to the average of 868.6 mm over this extended period. Additionally, India had experienced "normal" to "above-normal" rainfall during the monsoon season for four consecutive years before 2023.

Factors Influencing Monsoon:

To predict rainfall patterns, three main factors are considered:

1. El Niño: It is a warm water flow in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, influencing the weather. El Niño tends to promote rainfall.
2. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): This phenomenon affects the temperature differences along the western and eastern coasts of the Indian Ocean. A positive IOD can enhance rainfall, as observed this year.
3. Snow Cover of the Northern Himalayas and Eurasian Region: It affects temperatures and influences monsoon weather conditions.

A combination of these factors helps estimate the monsoon weather.

El Niño, La Niña, and Indian Ocean Dipole:

1. El Niño and La Niña are natural climate patterns. El Niño refers to warming in the central and eastern Pacific regions, while La Niña signifies cooler sea surface temperatures in the same areas. Both impact weather patterns, affecting rainfall, temperature, and overall weather conditions.
2. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also known as the Indian Niño, is associated with the Indian Ocean's temperature anomalies. During a positive IOD phase, the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer while the eastern Indian Ocean cools. Conversely, during a negative IOD, the reverse occurs. These warm and cool phases influence weather patterns, including the monsoon in India.

The IMD has decided to release a monsoon forecast for May 2024. The predictions issued by the weather department will be significantly beneficial for the agricultural sector and farmers, aiding them in making informed decisions.