On January 29, there is a likelihood of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announcing subsidies for agricultural exports in the forthcoming interim budget scheduled for February 1. The projected growth rate for the country's agriculture sector in the financial year 2024 is anticipated to hover around 1.80 percent, as per the initial advance estimate from the National Statistical Office. While agriculture experts indicate that the development rate figures are not yet precise, being based on the conditions of the last five to six months, a clearer picture is expected to emerge after February.
The expected growth rate for the agriculture sector in the financial year 2024 was initially projected to be around 3 to 3.50 percent, but the initial estimate seems disappointingly low. A decrease in the production of most kharif crops, primarily attributed to weak and irregular monsoons last year, contributes to this downturn. Given that half of the country's population is involved in agriculture and related sectors, the progress of the agriculture sector assumes critical importance. The impact of low income in the agriculture sector is often not palpable in most regions. Maintaining a high level of agricultural income is essential for stimulating consumer demand.
The rural economy relies on the performance of the agriculture sector and the financial well-being of farmers. To mitigate the crisis caused by the export of agricultural products, the government needs to take various measures, including imposing restrictions on the export of certain agricultural products, to regulate escalating prices in the domestic market. Currently, bans can be observed on wheat, rice, and sugar. Due to this uncertainty, not only does India's reputation suffer in the export market, but farmers also encounter challenges in harvesting crops, directly impacting their income.
Ensuring sustained growth in agricultural exports necessitates the formulation of an effective agricultural export policy coupled with increased agricultural production. Continuous exports are possible only when domestic supply is not constrained, and the capacity to meet demand in the export market is established. To achieve this, there is a need to establish technology-based production capacity that can enhance the production of high-quality agricultural products, ensuring competitiveness in the global market.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, most industries in the country experienced a period of recession, while the performance of the agriculture sector remained commendable. While many sectors faced negative growth rates, the agriculture sector witnessed a growth rate of over 3.50 percent. If the overall development rate of the country is to be strengthened, it is imperative to boost the growth rate of the agriculture sector. The budget can potentially serve as a step in the right direction, proposing changes to double the income of farmers and modernize the agriculture sector.
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