According to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the 2023/24 El Niño event, which has driven a spike in global temperatures and extreme weather worldwide, is showing signs of transitioning. There is a projected shift to La Niña conditions by the end of the year, with at least a 60% chance of La Niña occurring during July-September. Average global sea surface temperatures remain exceptionally high.
The latest forecast from the WMO suggests a 50% chance of either neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August 2024. The probability of La Niña increases to 60% during July-September and 70% during August-November. The likelihood of El Niño redeveloping during this period is negligible. During La Niña, the surface temperature of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cools significantly, affecting tropical atmospheric circulation, especially winds, pressure, and rainfall.
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett stated that since June 2023, each month has set a new temperature record, making 2023 the warmest year on record. The past nine years have been the warmest, despite the cooling influence of a multi-year La Niña from 2020 to early 2023. December 2023 saw El Niño peak as one of the five strongest on record. Our weather is expected to become more extreme due to the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere.
Read More... Monsoon Prediction for 2024, Due to El Niño, La Niña Effects Above Average Rainfall Expected
Global Seasonal Climate Update: Probabilistic forecasts for surface air temperatures for June-August 2024 indicate widespread above-normal sea-surface temperatures, except near the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. This leads to predictions of above-normal temperatures over nearly all land areas. Regional Climate Centers and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will closely monitor ENSO conditions over the coming months.
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